Silver , XAGUSD more downside?

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Those looking for a a Bull Silver is gonna be disappointed. XAGUSD has a 2.1% drop on Tuesday 23/06. closing at 15.80. This is very much due to the recovery of the USDX, with DXY supported at 94 (from previous post). The Weekly chart of XAGUSD shows that price has been supported at both the green + blue weekly trendlines for almost 8 months since November 2014. Yesterday, we saw a Day close below the trendlines, but we will need a Week close below both the weekly trendlines to confirm the break of Support.

Zoom into the hourly chart, we can observe that the 8 mths support lines have turned resistance.

Weekly Chart:

xag weekly 23-06

Hourly Chart:

xag h1 23-06

Possible short :

Entry : 15.82

Target: 14.70

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Buy or Sell ?

Dollar

Definition:

DXY Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners

DXY goes up when the US dollar gains “strength” when compared to other currencies.

Technicals:

After breaking up a downward trendline in the first quarter 2015, the USDX has retraced back onto Resistance turned Support TL (supported at 94.0)

Those who might have miss out on the Usd strength, may wish to start looking into buying USD again

DXY mthnly 19-06

Possible trades:

1) DXY Long @ 94.0

2) Eurusd sell @ 1.136

3) Usdsgd Buy @ 1.333

4) Gbpusd Sell @ below 1.583

Updates 23/06/2015

Eurusd +200 pips 

Gbpusd +110 pips

Usdsgd +70 pips

Australia ASX & SPI200

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We continue to take a bearish view on the world stock markets for the moment. This 2 weeks, we did see some corrections in the world markets especially in the European indexes and till date, Australia SPI200. All eyes maybe focused on friday’s US NFP results and whether Greece can resolve its debts problems, we might be expecting some movements in the market on Thursday and Friday.

In this page, we are going to take a look at SPI200, a benchmark equity index based on the Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index.spi200 weekly 03-june

The index has moved almost 200 points since monday after resisting to the upper weekly trendline. It is currently holding at a support of 5540. However, if the 5540 support is to be broken, we might be able to witness the next support at 5300-5360 area ( also indicated in the lower blue and green trendline).

5540 is a decent area to take partial profit on a short position.

5300-5360 is a good area to take full profit on a short position.

Possible to resume a long position at 5300-5360 region

** Next update will be on China A50 and HongKong HSI bearish charts , which should be having their own corrections**

Markets correction coming?

Hate to speculate on a market correction when myself have a sum of money invested in the market. But it does seem like many markets from DJ30, FTSE, CAC,DAX, SPI, HSI, A50 , SG might be seeing some corrections sooner rather than later. Will there be a correction that everyone is waiting for/ predicting in June 2015?

It may just be happening soon. With many of the indexes at critical Support and Resistance point.

FTSE100 – Daily chart

ftse daily 01-06

SPI200 – Weekly

spi200 weekly 01-june

DAX – Weekly

dax weekly 01-06

CAC40 -Daily

cac daily 01-06

For me, It does seems like some forms (irregardless big or small) of correction might be coming soon. We definitely do not want to buy any stocks into these corrective markets at the moment. May even start to sell some holdings to free up cash + lock in some profits and to pick up some stocks later in the month when the market stabilize and resume its bull trend.

Is Dow Jones retracement over?

(Updated 27th May 2015)

Dow has dropped about 250 points since last friday towards the Support Trendline ard the 17930-17950 region , we may consider into adding some DJ long positions, or stocks which has fallen along with this index slight correction over the past few days.

If the week is to close way below our support TL, a much much big correction is expected, till then we will still assume index are supported on this Bull run. An opportunity to long the index or stocks.

Hopefully to see another day of down for DJ30 towards the 17930 region , awaiting some bullish signals before entering the resuming bull trend.

dj weekly 26-05

Buying Mexico ?

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Where is the Mexico Economy going?

Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America.

From FocusEconomics, the economic outlook for Mexico is moderating. The economy is expected to reap the benefits of both a recovery in the U.S. economy and investments related to the structural reforms the Peña administration has implemented. Lower oil prices have prompted the government to cut spending for this year and next, and this will drag on growth. Analysts participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast cut Mexico’s 2015 GDP growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage over the previous month and now see it rising 2.8%. Forecasters see the economy picking up momentum and expanding 3.4% till 2017.

Economic indicators

Consumer Confidence waned in April – Confidence among Mexican consumers moderated in April after it reached a three-month high in March. The consumer confidence fell from 93.1 points in March to 91.3 points in April.

Inflation – Mexico’s consumer prices fell 0.26% over the previous month, which contrasted March’s 0.41% increase and was in line with the 0.24% drop the markets had expected. Annual inflation in April stabilized at March’s 3.1%, consolidating around the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0%.

PMI – rose to 51.4 from a revised 50.4 in March. Although it fell  short of the 51.6 the markets had expected, PMI continues to move in the right direction as it moved further above to the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the manufacturing sector.

Here’s the link from the World Bank review of the Mexico economy

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mexico/overview#1

Our view:

Mexico market has fallen quite abit since it peak in Sept 2014, falling along with the Crude price. We believe it is starting to bottom out as Crude price starts to stabilize and with US markets to begin it gradual rise in the 2nd half of 2015, Mexico economy is likely to benefits from the world stabilizing economies too.

Buy EWW.US Etf

EWW.US – The iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Mexican equities.

Closed at $59.23 on 22 May 2015. Waiting for more pullback before buying into EWW.US ETF.

Entry: $56.50-$58

Cut: Below $55

eww monthly 25-05